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Specific courier partners have unacceptably high failure rates

Discover why specific courier partners have unacceptably high failure rates and how Forthroute helps Shopify merchants optimize their returns process with

By Hylke Reitsma · Co-founder & Supply Chain Specialist · Replit Race to Revenue Cohort #1

Hylke Reitsma is co-founder of Forthsuite and a supply chain specialist with 8+ years of hands-on experience at Shell, Verisure, and Stryker. He holds an MSc in Supply Chain Management from the University of Groningen and writes practical guides to help e-commerce teams run leaner, faster supply chains. Selected by Replit as 1 of 20 founders for the inaugural Race to Revenue Cohort #1 (2026) and certified as a Replit Platform Builder.

9 min read
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In this article

When specific courier partners have unacceptably high failure rates, they don't just slow down your business. They cost you real money, erode customer trust, and force you to manage an endless stream of return-to-origin (RTO) orders that should never have happened. For Shopify merchants handling cash-on-delivery or shipping to tier-2 and tier-3 cities, poor courier performance can mean the difference between profit and loss on every order. Tools like Forthroute help you track and manage the returns fallout, but the root problem often sits with the logistics partner you chose to trust.

Why Specific Courier Partners Have Unacceptably High Failure Rates

Not all couriers perform the same. Some partners deliver nearly all parcels successfully. Others fail on a significant share. The gap is not a rounding error. It's a business-breaking difference that shows up in your Shopify analytics, your bank account, and your customer reviews.

One courier partner alone causes a significant portion of RTOs per 100 orders.

An elevated RTO rate means you're paying twice to ship the same product, once outbound and once on the return leg, while earning nothing. If your average order value is substantial and your shipping cost is moderate each way, you're burning significant amounts in logistics expense per failed delivery. At volume, this adds up to substantial monthly waste.

Courier failure happens for three reasons: inadequate last-mile infrastructure, poor training of delivery agents, and deliberate misreporting to hit internal targets. The third reason is harder to detect but more damaging.

Fake Delivery Failure Remarks and How They Inflate RTO Numbers

When a courier partner marks an order as "customer not reachable" or "address incomplete," you assume the customer made a mistake or changed their mind. In many cases, that assumption is wrong.

Many RTOs are actually fake remarks by courier partners. They mark 'customer not reachable' or 'refused delivery' even though the customer reports no one called or came to their location.

Fake failure remarks happen because delivery agents and regional hubs operate under tight time constraints. If an agent has 80 parcels to deliver in a six-hour shift and your customer lives in a hard-to-reach lane, marking the order undelivered is faster than making the actual attempt. Some couriers even incentivize speed over success, rewarding agents for parcels processed rather than parcels delivered.

You can spot fake failures by calling customers directly after an RTO is logged. If the customer reports no missed call, no delivery attempt, and no prior contact, you're dealing with a courier problem, not a customer problem. Track these incidents by courier partner in a spreadsheet. After 50 orders, patterns become clear. One partner may show fake failures on a meaningful portion of shipments, another on a much smaller share.

How to Validate Delivery Attempt Claims

Set up a post-RTO workflow in Shopify. When a return is logged, send an automated email or SMS asking the customer three questions:

  • Did you receive a call from the courier?
  • Did anyone attempt delivery at your address?
  • Did you refuse the order or ask for cancellation?

Collect responses in a spreadsheet or database tool linked to your order ID. Tag each response with the courier partner name. After 30 days, filter by partner and calculate the percentage of RTOs where the customer reports no contact. Partners with elevated fake-failure rates should be flagged for review or replacement.

Measuring Courier Performance with RTO Rate and Delivery Success Metrics

Track two numbers for every courier partner: RTO rate and first-attempt delivery success rate. RTO rate is the percentage of orders that come back undelivered. First-attempt success rate is the percentage delivered on the first try, without requiring a second or third visit.

Acceptable benchmarks depend on your geography and product type, but for urban COD orders in India, an elevated RTO rate is a red flag. For prepaid orders in metro areas, underperformance becomes clear through comparative analysis. First-attempt success should sit above typical industry standards in cities and lower in rural zones.

Pull this data from your shipping aggregator dashboard or Shopify's order export. Create a pivot table with columns for courier name, total orders shipped, successful deliveries, RTOs, and first-attempt successes. Update it weekly. If a partner's RTO rate climbs significantly over two weeks, escalate immediately with your account manager.

Building a Courier Scorecard

A simple scorecard makes performance gaps visible. For each partner, track:

  • RTO rate: (RTOs / total orders) × 100
  • Fake failure rate: (customer-reported no-attempts / RTOs) × 100
  • Average delivery time: median days from dispatch to delivery
  • Customer complaint rate: support tickets per 100 deliveries
  • Cost per successful delivery: total shipping cost / successful orders

Rank partners by cost per successful delivery. A courier with a moderate per-order rate and an elevated RTO costs you more per successful delivery. A partner charging slightly more with a significantly lower RTO is often better when you factor in customer satisfaction and repeat purchase rates.

Switching Couriers or Splitting Volume to Reduce Failure Rates

When specific courier partners have unacceptably high failure rates, you have three options: fix the relationship, split your volume, or switch entirely.

Fixing starts with data. Share your RTO analysis with the courier's account manager and ask for a written action plan. Request weekly check-ins and monthly performance reviews. If RTO rates don't improve significantly within 60 days, the problem is structural, not temporary.

Splitting volume means routing orders intelligently. Use your shipping aggregator or a logistics routing tool to assign couriers by pin code. If Partner A fails frequently in certain regions but performs well in others, send only the high-performing region orders their way. If Partner B handles metros well but struggles in tier-3 towns, reserve them for major city shipments.

Switching is the cleanest solution when a partner refuses to improve. Notify them 15 days before you stop sending volume and migrate in stages. Move a portion of orders to a new partner in week one, more in week two, and complete the transition by week four. Monitor RTO rates and customer feedback at each stage to confirm the replacement performs better.

Negotiating Better Terms with Reliable Partners

Once you identify a courier with strong performance and reliable first-attempt delivery, negotiate volume-based pricing. Offer to route a significant share of your shipments through them in exchange for improved rates or a dedicated account manager. Reliable partners reward loyalty because stable volume lets them plan capacity and hire better agents.

Using a Returns Management Platform to Track Courier Accountability

Manual tracking works until you hit substantial monthly order volumes. After that, you need a system that connects Shopify order data, courier tracking events, and customer feedback in one place. A returns management platform like Forthroute logs every RTO, tags it with the courier partner name, and surfaces patterns you'd miss in a spreadsheet.

Forthroute lets you set rules based on courier performance. If a partner's RTO rate becomes concerning, the platform can alert you by email and suggest alternate partners for new orders. If a customer reports no delivery attempt, Forthroute flags the order for manual follow-up and adds a note to the courier's profile. Over time, you build a performance history that informs every shipping decision.

The platform also automates post-RTO workflows. When an order returns, Forthroute can send a refund, issue store credit, or offer re-dispatch through a different courier, all without manual input. This cuts the time you spend managing returns from hours to minutes and lets you focus on preventing the next round of failures.

Preventing Future Courier Failures with Smarter Routing and Customer Verification

Long-term success means building processes that stop bad deliveries before they happen. Start with address verification. Use address validation tools to confirm customer addresses at checkout. If a pin code doesn't match the city or the address format looks incomplete, prompt the customer to correct it before they complete the order.

Add phone number verification for COD orders. Send a one-time password via SMS and require the customer to enter it before the order is confirmed. This simple step cuts fake orders and wrong numbers, two common causes of RTO.

For high-value orders, call the customer within an hour of checkout to confirm the address and delivery preferences. Ask if they'll be home during delivery hours and whether they need a specific time slot. Customers appreciate the extra care, and you reduce the chance of a wasted delivery attempt.

Setting Clear Delivery Expectations

Many RTOs happen because customers forget they placed an order or don't recognize the courier's phone number. Send an SMS and email 24 hours before delivery with the courier's name, tracking number, and expected delivery window. Include a line like "Save this number: +91-XXXXXXXXXX. Our courier will call from this number."

If possible, offer a delivery reschedule link in the message. Customers who know they won't be home can push the delivery to the next day, avoiding a failed attempt and a potential RTO.

Take Control of Courier Performance

When specific courier partners have unacceptably high failure rates, the damage compounds quickly. You lose money on wasted shipping, you frustrate customers who never received a delivery attempt, and you spend hours managing returns that should never have happened. The fix starts with measurement. Track RTO rates, validate failure claims, and hold partners accountable with data.

Build a scorecard, test alternate couriers, and route orders to the partners who actually deliver. Use a returns platform to automate the tracking and response work, and put systems in place that catch address errors and fake orders before they ship.

Manage returns more efficiently and hold your couriers accountable. Try Forthroute free at forthroute.io.

Specific Forthroute Shopify Guide

About the Author

Hylke Reitsma
Hylke Reitsma Co-founder & Supply Chain Specialist · Replit Race to Revenue Cohort #1

Hylke Reitsma is co-founder of Forthsuite and a supply chain specialist with 8+ years of hands-on experience at Shell, Verisure, and Stryker. He holds an MSc in Supply Chain Management from the University of Groningen and writes practical guides to help e-commerce teams run leaner, faster supply chains. Selected by Replit as 1 of 20 founders for the inaugural Race to Revenue Cohort #1 (2026) and certified as a Replit Platform Builder.

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